Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world’s population, expert warns

Last Updated Mar 2, 2020 7:43 PM EST

Boston — The coronavirus death toll now tops 3,000 worldwide, with nearly 90,000 cases. But even those numbers are nothing compared to what could happen in the months ahead.

CBS News spoke to one of the country’s top experts on viruses, Marc Lipsitch from Harvard University, who cautions that 40-70% of the world’s population will become infected — and from that number, 1% of people who get symptoms from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, could die. The virus can spread rapidly and people can transmit it before they know they are infected.

Lipsitch breaks down his findings in this extended conversation with CBS News. The following transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

Jim Axelrod: So, the number that I think is grabbing a lot of people is this estimate: 40-70% of the world’s adult population could be infected.

Marc Lipsitch: Yes.

Axelrod: Accurate?

Lipsitch: That is a projection, so we will find out if it’s accurate as things go on. It is the best estimate that I’ve been able to make based on a combination of the mathematical models that we use to track and predict epidemics.

Axelrod: So in terms of addressing the numbers that may get people panicked, what can you tell us?

Lipsitch: Well, again, the “40-70%” is a proportion of the population — adult population infected. We know that some people who get this infection have no or almost no symptoms whatsoever. What we don’t know is how many there are like that.

Lipsitch: So say that’s half the people. Then the 1% or 2% that we’re seeing in the symptomatic people is cut down by half. Whatever the number is, it’s gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that’s what I think is likely to happen, then there are gonna be millions of people dying. And I don’t think there’s any way to get around that. And so I think there’s real reason for people to be concerned. I also think that we can turn that concern into actions that will make the situation better.

Axelrod: Just to clarify before we get into the actions, the 1% of people who are symptomatic, that fatality rate, that’s also not a straight mathematical equation. People over 65 may be more susceptible. People under 30 may be less susceptible, correct?

Lipsitch: So the susceptibility to symptomatic infection seems to go up strictly with age, and especially up at the very oldest ages. Among those who are symptomatic, the risk of dying goes up further. So it really is concentrated in those older age groups, the high risk.

Axelrod: You, who knows as much as anybody about this, are using words like “if” and “Well, we hope.” The fact is, we really just don’t know what to expect, do we?

Lipsitch: I think we have some bounds on what to expect. I think it is now almost inevitable that this will transmit in a global fashion and take a big toll on essentially the entire globe. I just don’t see any way around that given the number of places where we know about it and the number of places where we haven’t looked, and therefore, can infer that some of those places also probably have it.

Axelrod: When considering preparation, what should people be doing to prepare, aside from storing food or medicine? Mentally, what should people be doing to prepare?

Lipsitch: I think there’s a reasonable chance that public gatherings will be restricted either by legal authority — although I think that’s less likely — or by voluntary decisions of people. That includes church services and other forms of gathering in large groups.

Lipsitch: In terms of making things better and preparing, I think one thing we can do is, for business owners and those who are in charge of workplaces, to make it easier for people to stay home if they’re sick count sick days during this pandemic. On the individual level, that also means preparing oneself to stay home when sick in order to help prevent transmission to others.

Axelrod: I heard some people over the weekend just anecdotally saying, “Oh, SARS was supposed to be bad. Bird flu was supposed to be bad. The 2009 flu was supposed to be bad. And it wasn’t. I’m not gonna subscribe to the sky is falling. And this isn’t gonna be that bad.” You’re saying, “Time out, this actually is qualitatively different”?

Lipsitch: This is qualitatively different from SARS and MERS in the sense that it is ten times bigger than SARS already, or more and about ten bigger than SARS and it is way more widespread. And it’s clearly not under control in the way that SARS was at this point or near this point.

Axelrod: And for people tryin’ to get their arms around this right now, I think it’s a worthwhile question to ask you. Is this coronavirus an existential threat?

Lipsitch: This is not an existential threat. This is, qualitatively, it’s very much like a bad pandemic of influenza, which we experienced arguably twice or three times in the 20th Century. It’s worse than the one that we experienced in 2009. But none of those brought civilization close to its knees. They made things awful for a while.

Axelrod: And this won’t either?

Lipsitch: And this will not either.

No, the world is not ending

Trading ages

L’idioma dels subtítols es el que es té escollit al web google traslator . seleccionar un text amb el botó esquerra i canviat l’idioma de traducció. alguns vídeos youtube tenen …mes -> transcript!

her eyesight deteriorates had teeth this color and skin things wrinkles and sides
as she comes face-to-face with yourself about 73 how she feel how we should be
treated and will it change your life forever
oh my good oh oh no I don’t know hot nice toilet horrible i don’t want to
think about getting older because you look wrinkly look awful and now look at
no wonder up and terrified wouldn’t you be if you get to the merits or this up
oh wow chicken skin
twenty-nine-year-old Caroline Bell lives in brighton she’s a children’s drama
teacher with particularly strong views on the elderly
oh no it’s a no go get one they’re all stupid car things look at it
his heart was a she she’s half dead because slowly she’s going she breathing
just about
I’ve always had trouble with old people I’ve never had anything to do with them
so i knew nothing about them they were like aliens to me they scared me a prime
candidate for a wake-up call
Caroline’s in for a shock her current lifestyle involves clubbing most nights
with a new boyfriend she considers a toy boy Joel who’s 22 that it is it’s not
like this you laughter now let’s get determined to stay young
Caroline’s obsessed with looks good is at the comforter into why should know
clock the guts to wear and figures occasion
Caroline’s going to have to confront her fears and prejudices of the elderly not
only she going to have to live as an old woman she’s going to be immersed in
their world
for a month
Caroline’s left their own life behind she’s gonna have to live in a pensioner
alone away from family and friends she has no access to a car a mobile has been
taken away and she’s heading for a new home
very old woman length very womanly flowery table is our lovely to slip into
the evening Mary lady isn’t pink pink and grey it doesn’t mind a little bit of
my grandmother’s flat but this is much cleaner than my grandmother’s Pat this
sort of thing very typical you know she’d have something like that
stepping out for the first time in our own hometown things are very different
now she’s 73
no wolf whistles then this is very strange to us women dancing they look
through me
hey they’re not that type
it feels weird being in brighton because obviously this is my home ground but
obviously i’m here with somebody that’s not shoulder that’s really surreal i
can’t see flew somewhere do i get run over
see what I have the beeping sound now woman that can’t be softly when they
cross the road
to immerse Caroline into the world of the oap she’s heading for a day’s
voluntary work of the local healthy aging charity shop
although she’s never had any contact with the elderly Caroline’s got to
convince them
she’s one of them yeah as the new girl she’s banished to the back room if it’s
got stains on it and underarm crotch or any other general stains and you put
them in the bag for the rack been all these rags they give money for the racks
so it all goes to the charity is a hierarchy what you’ve been in 47 and
9999 comes under bric-a-brac except nobody suspects a thing
everybody is totally treated as an old person so how old are you then the other
night he reviewed 19 yes yes
you still seem so full of life you know
I think it was you brains work in your is that all you do this sort of thing to
keep your know they’re keep going
every morning I exercise the same time it remotely just touching your toes and
I did that bad 12 times and this about 12 times and this about and left i do
over there was a lot of exercises about 12 * another soap under captain me dire
believe in selenium multivitamins with the Highland complex hot cups and also I
cook every day fresh and I like I’m not make sure i get clean yet celery pass
they finish garlic is a month think too that I believe it as a new face around
town the regulars are keen to let Caroline know what’s available to
pension is in the area not mentoring something girl what if you want a cheap
happy go check usually cap the top of ghosts of business do you know what you
get a mother meal / heart stay keep ours medinas you name it the old-fashioned
baton putting burden you like very blue
thanks putting they can play the footing with onion and change and you name it
but not some freak pudding
what people coming hold people or room not all you’d be surprised if 95 coming
in it
yeah it was quite sad you know you get your customers and you something you
don’t see him for a while and you know what’s happened to them it takes so that
then is the left the job
the older people work in charity shop just love just a few morning’s keeping
their brain active working till working at money i mean the 90 your lady was
amazing she looked incredible and she’s just so with it so the headache and I’m
ready for bed as you can see I’ve got my chocolate notes / team got my own
routine actually feeling like an old lady today my routine and slippers and
dressing down and I’m so ready for bed
it’s been a tiring day it’s very emotionally and physically draining

Viatge al Perú

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Muslim demographics

Aquest vídeo el penjo aquí, com a reflexió de com evoluciona tot de forma imparable. No hi ha res inamovible. Nomes hi ha una certesa que la realitat i els valors que tenim avui, no seran els dels nostres fills o nets. La globalització que han portat les  comunicacions en general, ja siguin los mitjanats físics (aviació, TAV, cotxe ..) com los tecnològics (PC, Internet, radio, TV, ..) han accelerat los canvis de valors i forma de vida  de la humanitat a uns valors dels que no som encara conscients. Lo que sense aquest mitjans de comunicació hagués pogut tarda segles o inclús mil·lennis ara es produeixen nomes en dècades. Vull fer constar explícitament que no estic d’acord en la única preocupació i reflexió que ha inspirat la creació d’aquest vídeo: que com continuï la baixa taxa de natalitat a Europa (l’antic Sacre Imperi Romà ) la religió catòlica serà desplaçada per la musulmana.

Per als catalans serà un espectacle interessant veure la desaparició d’Espanya.